The Trend Canvas helps you map different trends in the world around your business that may impact you in the future.
- You want to map or track different trends in the world around you
- You are in the early stages of a startup or innovation journey and need a robust understanding of the problem you aim to solve
- You are interested in various sectors or aspects of the business environment such as market trends or competitor strategies
- You want to facilitate informed strategic decisions and risk management by understanding potential future scenarios
- Now These are the trends that are clearly visible and influential in the present-day world.
- 2 Years These are the trends you expect to have a significant impact or become mainstream in the next 2 years.
- 5 Years Predictions or conjectures about trends that might emerge or become influential in about 5 years.
- 10 Years Long-term predictions or scenarios about trends and patterns that might influence the future in roughly 10 years.
When coming up with new directions for innovation, or when you’re taking the first steps on your startup journey, it’s all about understanding the problem you want to solve. That requires making sense of a lot of incoming information. Not just information about your customer (see Customer Needs Canvas, Persona Canvas, and Customer Journey Canvas for that), but also information about the state of the world around you.
The Trend Canvas is an essential tool for mapping and understanding the external environment in which your business operates. It helps you identify, process and display a broad array of information about trends and potential developments that might affect your business in both the short and long term.
For example, a fintech startup might use the Trend Canvas to plot out current and upcoming technological trends, regulatory changes, customer preferences, and competitor strategies. This helps them identify opportunities, understand threats, and make strategic decisions to innovate successfully within their sector.
- Collect Trends
The first step to mapping the world around you is to find relevant information and make sense of it. There needs to be a sorting principle at work. One great way to do this is to look at relevant trends. ‘Relevant’ here means that it has either a direct or a strong indirect effect on what you are trying to achieve. As always, it is far easier to split the 'collecting' and the 'sorting' steps. So start by collecting trends that you see evidence of in the world around you. Look at articles, forecasts, magazines, and other publications. Have a look at trendwatchers and industry reports. Try to collect as many new developments as you can find, in different areas. The Checklist below can give you an idea of areas to look at.
When you're collecting, make sure you write down the sources where you found your information.
For each trend, write a post it with a recognizable label (that can be linked back to the source). stick each of sticky note on a big piece of paper or empty wall. We're clustering next, so you can already try to stick stickies that seem related close to each other.
- Cluster Trends
Step back, and have a look at your 'trend wall'. It's now time to organize these trends into meaningful clusters. Engage your team in a collaborative session of affinity mapping - grouping together related or interconnected trends. Watch for patterns based on the color-coded sectors you initially established.
Reflect on the distribution of your clustered trends. Are there certain sectors with more trends than others? Does that mean the impact of those areas on your business is larger, or is it merely a reflection of the research interests of your team? If the latter is the case, make an effort to explore understudied areas or pull in outside experts to fill in these gaps.
- Select Sectors
With your clustered trends, you've got a lot of valuable information. However, to make it truly useful, you need to narrow your focus on those sectors that are especially relevant or fascinating for your business right now. Select around 3-5 sectors that you want to explore more intimately.
The Trend Canvas provides five sectors for your convenience - mark and label these on your canvas with sticky notes containing your selected area names.
- Map the trends
Now, it's time to translate your trend clusters into your Trend Canvas. For each of your selected sectors, start identifying and placing the relevant trends onto the canvas. Categorize each trend based on its anticipated impact timeline:
Encourage your team to explain their decisions when placing trends, providing background and rationale. This helps create a shared understanding and fosters meaningful discussions about your business's future.
Once all trends are placed, step back as a team and discuss the emerging pattern. What's new? What's expected? What scenarios could unfold? How can your business prepare and capitalize on these trends?
- Revisit
Like the real-world trends it represents, your Trend Canvas is a dynamic tool that should evolve over time. Revisit your canvas regularly to review and revise it based on new data, changing circumstances, and developing insights. This process keeps your Trend Canvas alive and helps maintain the shared mental map across your team.
- Next Steps
With your Trend Canvas, you have a dynamic roadmap that keeps you informed and prepared for the future. It's crucial to use this actively as part of your strategic planning and decision-making process. Stay updated with your trends and adapt your strategies accordingly.
Furthermore, a comprehensive understanding of trends can provide a wealth of ideas and opportunities for innovation. Consider using tools like the Uncertainty Matrix to gauge the potential and risk associated with each trend.